DEBATE REACTION:  So, the first debate is over.  The flag still flies over the White House.  I doubt if any foreign nation will change its policy toward us.

Here are my own reactions:  No one particularly stood out.  There was no sense that "this person must be president." On the other hand, there were no obvious disgraces, although 38-year-old Vivek Ramaswamy sometimes sounded more like a used Buick dealer than a presidential candidate.  Youth and inexperience kept him down. 

Donald Trump was not there.  I've never seen a presidential debate with the frontrunner absent, but now we've had one.  The public got a chance to observe what a post-Trump GOP might sound like, but Trump's absence did make the debate less realistic.  It was the New York Yankees without Babe Ruth.

Eyes were on Ron DeSantis, the secondrunner, but still way behind Trump in the polls.  I thought DeSantis acquitted himself well, but I doubt if he closed the gap with the former president.  He is informed, articulate and smart.  He has been a great governor of Florida.  However, I could see last night why some pundits say that he seems too programmed, stiff and distant.  In some ways he is Ronald Reagan without the charm.  It was the charm, though, the warmth, that made us feel that Ronnie was a personal friend.  The public must feel you, not just know you.  I think, though, that DeSantis has the capacity to improve.

If there was one candidate who had a surprisingly good night it was Nikki Haley, who has campaigned for months without much needle moving in the polls.  I've always liked her, from her fine, sensitive governorship of South Carolina to her triumphant ambassadorship to the UN under President Trump.  She has clearly distanced herself from Trump, which is hurting her with the party base, and, indeed, she was the one candidate last night who had the courage to criticize her own party for going along too often with Biden's policies.   She was also the only female onstage, and she was the adult in the room.  The voice of experience and reason.  I don't know if she'll rise in the polls, but she deserves to.

The structure of the debate, and the partisan cheering and booing in the hall, were not helpful features.  We wanted to get to know the candidates, and audience reactions sometimes drowned out what was being said.  The affair would have been better without an audience.  And the moderators, Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum of Fox News, should have controlled events more strongly.  Why have rules if they aren't enforced? 

I mentioned Vivek Ramaswamy earlier.  In every election campaign there's someone who develops what President George H.W. Bush called "the big mo," – momentum – and often that same candidate sees it ultimately melt away.  Going into the debate, Ramaswamy had a bit of the "big mo" because of his personality and energy.  But he was among political pros last night, and the big mo probably went.  The personality was there, but the depth was not.  He is not the man to get that 3 a.m. phone call warning of a nuclear attack.  Give him some years to develop.

One surprise was how good a debater former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was.  He is a talent, but he's also has been carrying on a grudge fight against Donald Trump.  I don't see him making much progress.

There will be another debate in late September.  I look forward to it.  I want to see more because the candidates barely introduced themselves last night.  There were eight contestants, and I hope there are half that number next month.  Eight is too many for a true discussion.

Trump will not participate in September either.  It's his choice.  But he runs the risk of assuming his popularity will last.  Republicans, though, might get used to the idea that they can run a campaign, and debates, and win, without him.   If that idea takes hold, Donald Trump can become history.   

August 24, 2023